Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
